Just checking in with my regular mid-month update....And what a half-month it has been since I last checked in.

As of the end of March, the S&P 500 had endured nearly a 10% correction from the highs earlier in the year and finished the first quarter of 2026 down more than 4%. This represented the worst quarterly performance in about 4 years. You may remember 4 years ago we were dealing with surging inflation and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at a historic pace to try to tame it which caused the market to fall by about 25% at one point. But since then, what we saw in the first 3 months of this year was the worst performing quarter we've experienced. But did we panic? Absolutely not. Why? Because we know corrections are normal and the only way to get burned by a correction is to sell out of our investments during one. I've shown you the chart below numerous times to reiterate just how normal corrections are and why it's important we don't overreact to them.

The chart above shows us the largest pullback for each year (represented by the red dot) going back to 1980. The chart also shows us the full year return (represented by the blue bar). What this chart shows us is that every single year there is a pullback of some size...and the average of all of those pullbacks is about 14%. This means the market drops by about 14% per year at some point on average. Despite that, you also see that the vast majority of the blue bars are positive. Takeaway? Despite the regularity of significant corrections on a yearly basis, the market usually still produces gains. Knowing this, does it make sense to sell when we're in the middle of a correction? History tells us certainly not. Corrections are common and as I have said 100 times, over the long term the stock market tends to follow the trajectory of earnings growth. Having said that....

Above is a look at the earnings growth of the companies that make up the S&P 500, my preferred stock market benchmark. We see a few stumbles along the way but overall the trajectory is what we want to see....up and to the right. And you can see towards the far right of the chart, earnings have been accelerating in recent years. And this chart is backward looking...Meaning it's showing you what has happened. The next chart will show you what's expected to happen over the next 12 months.

Above we see all of the individual sectors of the S&P 500 and how much earnings of the companies within those sectors are expected to grow over the next 12 months. The blue bar is the aggregate...representing the overall S&P 500 index. Earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to grow 18% over the next 12 months. On the far left we see the technology sector is expected to grow earnings by 34% over that same time period. Lot's of things can move markets in the short term as we just saw in the first quarter when stocks fell about 10% at one point on geopolitical concerns. But over the long term what matters most are the two charts above and those charts paint a very healthy picture of the companies we invest in. If stock prices are falling but earnings are growing, I take that as a pretty good indication that future returns will be positive and the best course of action is to stay invested. And in the next and final chart, we will see that simply staying invested during the recent turmoil has already begun to pay off.

This chart shows us the trailing 1 year returns of the various sectors of the S&P 500 as well as the aggregate return of the overall index itself in blue. Remember this time last year we were basically at the height of the tariff tantrum which sent stocks reeling. The S&P 500 fell 20% and the so called experts on our televisions were warning of imminent global recession and continued pain for investors. My messaging at that time was not to let the noise deter you as forward returns following major market declines were typically very strong and the earnings outlook remained positive. We went on to fully recover the tariff tantum decline and finish 2025 with nearly 15% gains for the year....And then the Iran conflict hit early in 2026 and sent stocks reeling again. And again the so called experts were warning of Oil prices going to $200 causing a global recession. And again my advice was to ignore the geopolitics and focus on the earnings and the long-term. And over the past 3 weeks the market has completely erased the Iran war decline and we are back to new all-time highs. The S&P 500 is up over 30% in the past 12 months, and up 3% in 2026 despite falling 10% just a few short weeks ago. Ignore the noise. Focus on the data. And most importantly....Stay patient and stay invested. This is a simply strategy that has worked time and time again.